Oil price vs recession
In some cases the net oil price increase occurred well before the recession. A good price shocks, one would expect a negative correlation with the conditional With oil prices increasing rapidly in the recent past, it is hard not to wonder the correlation between oil price increases and economic downturns in the U.S. is not perfect. Not every sizeable oil price increase has been followed by a recession. By MICHAEL R. DARBY*. The increase in the real price of oil during. 1973-74 is widely believed to have been a major cause of inflation and recession both.